Blog We nailed our 2022 predictions! See whic...

We nailed our 2022 predictions! See which trends continue into 2023

As 2022 winds to a close, we look back at this time last year when Adjust made 5 Adjust mobile marketing predictions for 2022. We utilized our internal experts and data to forecast areas of the mobile app industry that appeared ripe for change and developments. But how’d we do? Below, we examine our 2022 predictions and compare them with the actual trends that unfolded this year. As a reminder, we’ve listed the five predictions below:

  1. Podcasts will see huge growth in mobile ad spend in 2022.
  2. CTV/OTT subscription overload will create opportunities for more free channels, inviting a lot more advertising.
  3. E-commerce is going to see a huge shift from digital to mobile.
  4. The future of measurement will leverage aggregated data driven by machine learning, built on transparency and trust.
  5. The move from banking apps to banking lifestyle or “super apps”.

How did Adjust do? (5 out of 5!)

1. Yes, podcasts saw growth in mobile ad spend

Podcasts had an impressive share of total ad spend in 2022, at 3.7%. Although this percentage is slightly below the 3.8% from the year before, it’s still remarkable, with the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) recently naming podcasting “one of the fastest growing (advertisement) segments”.

The IAB also performed a survey among its brands and announced an 8.1% increase in ad spend for podcasts is expected in 2023, and as mobile ad spend is projected to also increase, we anticipate mobile ad spend in podcasting to grow as well. Additionally, as major players have entered the market in 2022 with their own podcasting features, like Twitter and YouTube, the space is continuing to expand.

2. Yes, CTV/OTT subscription overload created opportunities for more free channels

This prediction was right on the money, with a report from Hub Research revealing that 2022 saw a 10% increase in consumers watching free, ad-supported TV (FAST) channels like Roku or Pluto TV. In fact, over half of U.S. TV viewers watched FAST channels in 2022. Channel 4’s All4, which is the largest free digital streaming service in the U.K., announced in July 2022 that its digital advertising revenue had risen by 40% and that its revenue posted GBP£1 Billion for the first time ever. Hub Research also reported that 55% of consumers get part of their video content via FAST channels.

A major reason for this increase is likely the carefully curated content offering of popular shows, albeit being less than the amount of content available on paid streaming platforms.

3. Yes, e-commerce experienced a huge shift from digital to mobile

Retailers of all sizes have developed mobile apps to increase sales and meet the growing consumer demand for m-commerce. As reported in our article, Shopping on mobile goes from strength to strength in 2022, sessions in H1 2022 were 8% higher than the average of 2021.

As smartphone penetration increases globally, more consumers expect to be able to make purchases on their phones. According to a recent study, over 79% of U.K. smartphone users have made a purchase using their mobile phone in the last 6 months. Closing out the year, Insider Intelligence forecasts 2022 m-commerce holiday sales to make up 46.9%, or US$116.68B of overall e-commerce sales.

We anticipate this trend to continue with Martech reporting that retail m-commerce sales, defined as users making purchases via smartphones or apps, are expected to hit US$710 billion by 2025. Are you ready for this shift? Test your knowledge of mobile e-commerce with Adjust’s ultimate quiz.

4. Yes, measurement leverages aggregated data via machine learning

For this fourth prediction for 2022, Adjust Co-Founder—and now Key Advisor to the CEO—Paul Müller shared that Adjust had “invested in new methodologies and strategies to deliver the most value with aggregated (vs. user-level) data that is safe to leverage for insights.”

We’re proud to say that Adjust has brought Paul’s words to fruition in 2022 with the launch of Conversion Hub, as reported here by Business of Apps. Conversion Hub does indeed leverage machine-learning models to work with aggregated data from SKAN 4.0 to provide Adjust clients with the most actionable iOS measurement insights possible.

5. Yes, banks are infiltrating super apps

In the last few years, most traditional banks have recognized that they must have their own apps to remain relevant and compete with neobanks. However, in 2022 many banks have come to realize that having an app isn’t enough. The app needs to be integrated with their users’ lifestyles. For example, a user no longer wants to exit a shopping app to use their banking app or send their friends money for dinner from the night before.

As recounted in our article The state of super apps 2022: Statistics and trends, there is greater demand for banking apps to be integrated into super apps for a seamless user experience. After such integration, a user can stay in the super app messaging their friends, ordering groceries, and paying their bills.

Even beyond integration, consumers are now expecting banks to provide their own super apps. A recent study by PayPayl and PYMNTS of consumers in Australia, Germany, the U.K., and the U.S. found that banks were the most trusted provider of super apps. Consider Paytm in India, AliPay in China, and Mercado Libre in Latin America. They all launched as single-service apps providing payment integrations but have expanded to meet user demands by becoming super apps.

If you found these fulfillments of Adjust’s predictions satisfying, why not check out two of our latest trend pieces: Food waste apps: Trends and tips going into 2023, and Unlock Q5 to level up your gaming app? Alternatively, dive into our Mobile app trends report 2022 for global benchmarks, insights, and expert analysis covering gaming, fintech, and e-commerce. And, if you’re ready to get your mobile analytics in order before starting 2023, please reach out to us here to request a demo and speak to our experts.

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